Natural Resources and Civil War Onset —— The Impact of Resource Types and Regional Variations

Abstract

Existing studies generally acknowledge a strong correlation between a nation’s natural resource endowment and the onset of civil wars. However, how do different types of natural resources influence civil war onset, and do these effects vary across regions? Drawing on data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the World Bank, this paper examines 65 civil wars occurring between 1945 and 2000, alongside the natural resource profiles of the affected nations. It investigates the impacts of mineral resources and energy resources on civil war onset through the theoretical lenses of the "greed hypothesis" and "opportunity hypothesis," respectively, and conducts regional heterogeneity analyses. The findings reveal: (1) Greater natural resource abundance in a country correlates with a higher likelihood of civil war onset. Specifically, mineral resources primarily incentivize rebels to initiate conflicts by increasing potential wartime gains, while energy resources may elevate civil war risks by undermining state capacity. (2) The two resource types exhibit distinct regional effects: In Africa, mineral resources play a more pronounced role in driving civil wars, whereas in Latin America, energy-rich nations are more prone to conflicts. In Asia, civil wars are predominantly influenced by energy resources, with mineral resources showing negligible impact. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between natural resources and civil war onset, clarifies the differential mechanisms of resource types, and identifies regional variations, offering theoretical insights for natural resource management and civil war prevention.